India-Türkiye Geopolitical Dynamics: A Shift in Power and Influence

Introduction

Recently, experts in geopolitics have been closely observing the emergence of Türkiye, formerly known as Turkey, as a significant player in the Indian Ocean region. Situated between Europe and Asia, Türkiye has always been viewed as a bridge connecting both continents. Surrounded by the Aegean Sea to the west, the Black Sea to the north, and the Mediterranean Sea to the south, Türkiye has maintained a regional stronghold since its declaration as a republic in 1923. Additionally, Türkiye has been a member of the prestigious NATO alliance since 1952.

In recent years, Türkiye has expanded its horizons, making strides in Africa and Asia, not only in terms of economic growth but also in diplomatic, military, political, and social realms. The aggressive rise of Türkiye's influence, particularly in the Indian Ocean region, has become a key concern for the Indian Establishment.

Since the 2000s, Türkiye has shown several noteworthy aspects. It has aggressively modernized its military strength, particularly the Turkish Navy. This modernization effort extends beyond hardware to encompass research, development, manufacturing, and export of military technologies to allied countries.

In 2006, Türkiye introduced the "Mavi Vatan" or "Blue Homeland" Naval Doctrine. This doctrine empowers the Turkish Navy with legal, political, diplomatic, and financial support to expand its presence in other regions. It enables Türkiye to conduct naval exercises, establish bases, and provide military hardware and technologies to friendly nations under the "Mavi Vatann" framework. Türkiye is also actively engaged in the MILGEM Project, focusing on the research, development, and mass-manufacture of naval vessels like Multipurpose Warships, Corvettes, Frigates, and Naval Destroyers. This project also facilitates Türkiye's identification of suitable countries for boosting exports of these products. Notably, many of these countries hold hostile attitudes towards India.

Furthermore, Türkiye's substantial investments in Military Hardware and Technologies include the development of the "TB2 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)," a highly advanced drone. Türkiye also stands out as the only country to commission the "TCG Anadolu," the world's first UAV-based Aircraft Carrier, specifically designed to operate UAVs from its platform. These technological advancements underscore Türkiye's commitment to establishing itself as a rising naval power.

Türkiye's Geopolitical Tapestry: Navigating Relationships Across the Globe

Türkiye's geopolitical relations paint a beautiful picture, showcasing its rich cultural heritage and historical significance on the world stage. Here's a summary of its key relationships:

India: Türkiye and India maintain cordial economic ties despite occasional differences.

United States: Türkiye and the US share a longstanding relationship rooted in mutual interests such as security, trade, and regional stability.

Russia: Türkiye's relationship with Russia is complex, involving cooperation in energy and defense alongside occasional conflict, especially in regional geopolitics.

Saudi Arabia: While economic cooperation is strong, political tensions arise due to differing approaches in regional conflicts.

China: Türkiye and China enjoy significant economic relations.

Pakistan: Strong historical and cultural ties translate into cooperation in defense, security, and economic matters.

Israel: Periods of cooperation exist, especially concerning military and intelligence, though relations have seen challenges.

Iran: A complex relationship marked by cooperation in trade and energy, with occasional tensions due to differing regional policies.

Europe: Türkiye and Europe maintain a good relationship, focusing on economic and cultural collaboration despite occasional challenges.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Türkiye has significant diplomatic and economic ties with countries in this region, with a foreign policy emphasizing trade, security cooperation, and involvement in regional conflicts.

Türkiye's Geopolitical Ambitions: A Historical Legacy and Modern Strategy

Türkiye's ambitions as a maritime and territorial power extend far beyond its historical boundaries, reaching into key regions like the Indian Ocean, Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. This expansionist vision is underpinned by Türkiye's desire to leverage its historical legacy as a bridge between continents and its strong Islamic identity to assert regional influence and leadership.

Historically, Türkiye's roots as the center of the Ottoman Empire have shaped its geopolitical aspirations. The Ottoman Empire, at its zenith, was a dominant force in the Islamic world and beyond, controlling vast territories across three continents. Despite the empire's dissolution in 1923 and the subsequent establishment of the Republic of Türkiye, the dream of reclaiming a leadership role in the Islamic world has never waned. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this vision has gained renewed momentum, with Türkiye actively seeking to revive its historical prominence.

One notable manifestation of Türkiye's ambition is its strategic engagement in Somalia. Türkiye's presence in Somalia goes beyond mere economic or military interests; it is rooted in historical ties dating back to the Ottoman Empire's support for the Adal Sultanate against Christian Ethiopia. By investing in Somalia's infrastructure, security, and economy, Türkiye aims to bolster its influence in the Horn of Africa and secure strategic access to the Red Sea and Indian Ocean trade routes.

Moreover, Türkiye's close relationship with Pakistan plays a crucial role in its regional strategy. Türkiye and Pakistan share historical, cultural, and religious ties, which have translated into robust defense cooperation. Türkiye's military assistance to Pakistan, including the supply of advanced military hardware like UAVs, underscores its commitment to supporting allies and projecting power in South Asia.

Recent tensions between India and Maldives have been further complicated by Türkiye's involvement, with reports indicating that Türkiye has sold approximately 7-10 TB2 UAVs to Maldives, valued at around USD 37 million. Additionally, Türkiye's military presence in Maldives is expanding, causing unease within the Indian establishment.

In addition to its engagements in Africa and South Asia, Türkiye's involvement in the Middle East remains a focal point of its regional ambitions. The complexities of Türkiye's relationships with countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel reflect its efforts to navigate regional dynamics while pursuing its strategic objectives. Türkiye's diplomatic initiatives, economic partnerships, and military engagements in the Middle East underscore its multifaceted approach to regional influence.

Overall, Türkiye's ambitious geopolitical strategy encompasses a diverse array of regions and objectives, driven by historical legacies, cultural affinities, and strategic imperatives. As Türkiye continues to assert itself on the world stage, its actions and alliances will shape the geopolitical landscape in significant ways.

Geopolitical Rivalry with India

The aggressive posture Türkiye adopts towards India stems from various geopolitical factors and strategic considerations. Türkiye views India as a competitor due to its ambitions to revive the Ottoman Empire and position itself as a leader in the Islamic world. This vision necessitates Türkiye's own strength and the relative weakening of other countries, including India.

In the Middle East, Türkiye perceives three major power centers: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel. Each of these countries holds significant influence within their respective religious communities (Sunni, Shia, and Jewish followers), and Türkiye's relationship with them is complex.

India's successful development of strong ties with these power centers, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, poses a challenge to Türkiye's ambitions. India's growing presence in military exercises and diplomatic relations with Sunni-based Islamic countries is viewed as a threat by Türkiye, especially in its aspiration to become a leader in the Islamic world.

India's flourishing cooperation with Israel, both diplomatically and militarily, further adds to Türkiye's concerns. The strained relations between Türkiye and Israel exacerbate this situation, as religious animosity complicates their interactions.

Additionally, India's engagement with Iran, including operations at the Chabahar Port and access to Afghan and Central Asian markets, contrasts with Türkiye's strained relations with Iran due to religious differences between Shia and Sunni faiths.

Overall, Türkiye perceives India's rising influence in various geopolitical arenas as a hindrance to its own goals, leading to an aggressive stance against India and viewing it as a formidable competitor, particularly in regions where their strategic interests intersect.

India's Rising Influence: Shifting Dynamics

Türkiye is confronting a new reality as India asserts itself as the fastest-growing economy globally and a significant geopolitical power. India's strategic maneuvering across various power centers, including Shia-Sunni-Jewish dynamics, is reshaping the international landscape, particularly in regions where Türkiye has historically held sway.

India's proactive efforts to fortify relationships with nations like Greece and Cyprus, characterized by joint military exercises, intelligence collaborations, and strategic alliances, are unnerving Türkiye and escalating tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean region. India's bold move to invest in Israel's Haifa port has set off shockwaves in regional geopolitics, rattling Türkiye's influence and strategic partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean. This audacious step not only signals a power shift but also underscores the intense competition for control over crucial maritime trade routes.

The sharp divergence between India and Türkiye on critical geopolitical issues, notably the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, has intensified friction. India's decision to provide military support to Armenia, in stark contrast to Türkiye's staunch backing of Azerbaijan, underscores the deepening rift in their foreign policy approaches.

Furthermore, India's recent announcement of a Free Trade Agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, coupled with its expanding economic footprint in Europe, is challenging Türkiye's traditional market dominance. India's growing influence in global economic forums and its strategic partnerships across Europe are reshaping trade dynamics and positioning India as a formidable economic force.

During the G20 2024 summit, a groundbreaking initiative called the IMEC (India Middle East Europe Corridor) project was unveiled by India, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Greece. This ambitious project aims to foster economic development by establishing a strategic connectivity corridor linking Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Europe. The proposed route of the corridor spans from India to Europe, passing through key countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Greece bypassing Türkiye.

One of the notable aspects of the IMEC project is its deliberate exclusion of Türkiye from the envisioned corridor. This exclusion has sparked significant reactions, particularly from Türkiye, which views itself as a pivotal player in regional connectivity and trade routes. The project's decision to bypass Türkiye has not only raised eyebrows but has also triggered concerns about the shifting dynamics and alliances in the region. Türkiye's President openly voiced opposition to the IMEC project, citing concerns about being sidelined from a crucial economic and strategic initiative. The exclusion of Türkiye from the corridor underscores the complex geopolitical landscape, where competing interests and alliances are shaping the narrative of regional connectivity and development.

The IMEC project's exclusion of Türkiye reflects broader geopolitical considerations and strategic calculations, signaling a reconfiguration of regional dynamics and economic partnerships. Overall, India's actions are changing the way power works in the world, and Türkiye is feeling the pressure.

Final Thoughts

In this evolving geopolitical landscape, India's assertive diplomacy and strategic initiatives are redefining traditional power structures and challenging Türkiye's established spheres of influence. While maintaining a strong stance, dialogue and diplomacy remain essential to navigate these complex dynamics and identify avenues for constructive engagement and mutual benefit.

India's increasing understanding of Türkiye's intentions and tactics marks a positive shift from past misunderstandings. Strengthening economic and diplomatic ties should be a priority, as it not only benefits both nations but also fosters global stability. 

Türkiye, recognizing India's goodwill, should view friendly competition as an opportunity for mutual growth and collaboration. India's swift aid during Türkiye's earthquake crisis in February 2023 exemplifies the depth of historical bonds and a willingness to extend a helping hand in times of need. It's essential to ensure that gestures of friendship are met with reciprocity and respect, as India stands ready to address any misadventures.

Embracing healthy competition while removing unnecessary obstacles paves the way for a stronger partnership. In the ever-evolving global geopolitical landscape, India's commitment to continual improvement and advancement remains unwavering.